The Rise of Data-Driven Weather Forecasting

Summary

Comparison between AI based forecasts and NWP forecasts in operational-like context. The rise was due to the availability of large datasets and the development of new models. Examples include ERA5 reanalysis (28km resolution, 0.25 degs, 1979-2019). The use of this dataset however renders the resolution of the models to be lower compared to IFS, which is 9km.

Comparison Pangu-IFS:

• Statistical consistency of the model: IFS is better than PGW, which is far from perfect reliability. Can the model predicti extreme events with the same probability as the observations? (or is it just blurring?) Used example is the one of tropical cyclones.
• Forecast error prediction: general agreement between PGW and IFS in daily mean error.